ROTISSERIE HOCKEY ANALYSIS
Late round draft picks are one of the determining factors to build a winning team in a fantasy pool. A player picked in a late round who turns into a legitimate fantasy force can shift a team from a contender into a champ. Finding the best sleeper picks is the tough part, but we can help you make the right late round picks by following our simple rules.
We used data from the 8 NHL seasons to analyze breakout performances and the conditions under which they occur.
To appear in our analysis a player had to meet the following conditions:
• increased point per game production of at least 20% over the previous season,
• at least 70 points in the season, and
• never had more than 70 points in a season
We found that breakout players fell into 2 general categories.
1. Young highly skilled forward a few seasons into the NHL and just reaching physical maturity.
2. Players who had a big season after many unproductive fantasy years. These players varied widly in age and in general did not duplicate the breakout year in later seasons. Usually the breakout year was attributed to playing with first string linemates.
Drafting a player based on teammates is a risky business. Lines change often in the NHL and a good fantasy player with high quality linemates can quickly become a mediocre fantasy option on a second or third line. The only way to know which players will get first line time is to research throughout a season, and even then, a coach can change lines without warning leaving you with a worthless player. When a player’s linemates were the main contributing factor to a breakout season, there was no significant correlation between previous fantasy performance and performance during the breakout season. Hence, our analysis focused on younger players and the conditions under which their breakout seasons occurred.
Rules to Make Sleeper Picks in a Fantasy Hockey Pool
1. 3rd Year in the NHL
Young players just starting a NHL career need time to develop both physically and mentally. Players need to earn ice time, especially on the power play to increase scoring opportunities, and hence fantasy value. Our analysis indicates that on average a player will take 2 years of NHL experience before having a breakout year in his 3rd NHL season.
NHL Seasons until Breakout Year
Average: 3.2
Mode: 3
Median: 3
2. 22, 23 or 24 Years Old
The average age of a forward having a breakout season is 23.5, couple this with the fact that on average a player will breakout in his 3rd NHL season, and we can say that breakout players will start playing games in the NHL by age 19 or 20.
Age During Breakout Year
Average:23.5
Mode: 22
Median: 23
3. Increasing Points Per Game Over Previous 2 Seasons
We found that 79.6% of breakout players had an increased point per game average over the 2 NHL seasons before the breakout year. The average increase in points from season 1 to season 2 with the breakout players was 11 points. The small difference indicates that the players had strong performances during both of the previous 2 years, but improved slightly during the most recent season.
4. First Round Pick in the NHL Entry Draft
Sleeper picks are very often first round draft picks from the NHL entry draft a few years before their breakout year. During their junior career they proved that they have the ability to be a valuable asset to an NHL team, and this often translates to solid point production.
Use these rules as a guideline for picking a sleeper, but remember that common sense prevails in fantasy sports. Most importantly do your research and know the rules of your pool before dropping a pick on a non proven commodity.
